1. It's still 'drill, baby, drill'
Trump's three-word campaign slogan, "drill, baby, drill", is intended to sum up his plans for the US oil and gas industry. It's also an apt summary of existing US energy policy.
Since 2008, when Democrat Barack Obama was elected, oil production has soared from a 50-year low of 6.8 billion barrels a day to 19.4 billion in 2023.
"The United States is already producing more crude oil than any country ever," says Gautam Jain, an energy and finance expert at Columbia University.
"Oil and gas companies are buying back stocks and paying dividends to shareholders at a record pace, which they wouldn’t do if they saw better investment opportunities."
2. We won't always have Paris (or even Rio)
Trump withdrew the US from the 2015 Paris agreement on the first day of his second term (it took him six months to do it last time).
Jain frets that he may go further and exit international negotiations entirely by rescinding his country's membership of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, which was adopted in Rio de Janeiro in 1992.
Rejoining would be "nearly impossible", Jain says, as a future president would need the consent of two-thirds of the Senate.
The US risks dropping the mantle of climate leadership on China, he adds. A recent analysis by Oxford economists Matthew Carl Ives and Natalie Sum Yue Chung suggests that ship may have sailed years ago.
"China already processes most of the clean energy supply materials and has an advanced manufacturing base that is more capable of scaling up production to meet the rising demand," they say.
3. The bucks stop here?
A US retreat from international climate diplomacy would afflict people who are particularly vulnerable to the mounting crisis in Earth's atmosphere.
Jain highlights how Trump's predecessor Joe Biden donated several billions of dollars more towards renewable energy and adaptation in the developing world, compared with Trump in his first term.
However, a 2023 study that estimated each country's "fair share" of this climate finance pot according to income, population size and historical emissions, issued this withering verdict while Biden was president:
"Based on these metrics, we found that the US is overwhelmingly responsible for the climate finance shortfall," says environmental economist Sarah Colenbrander (University of Oxford).
"The world’s largest economy should be providing US$43.5 billion of climate finance a year. In 2021, it gave just US$9.3 billion – a meagre 21% of its fair share."
4. Biden's green tax credits may endure...
Trump could keep some Biden-era investments in clean energy (tax breaks for investors in renewables, for example) as the benefits are accruing in Republican states, Jain says.
He may still cut tax credits for people buying electric vehicles. This would slow the transition from combustion-engine transport by making it harder for people to afford an EV. (Biden's 100% tariff on Chinese-made EVs hasn't helped either).
5. ... but his methane tax probably won't
Jain predicts that the greatest damage inflicted by Trump will be to the regulation of fossil fuels and emissions. In his crosshairs is a federal charge for the release of methane from oil and gas wells and pipelines.
Biden identified cutting methane emissions as a potential brake on the accelerating pace of global heating. That's because methane is a greenhouse gas that lingers in our atmosphere for decades instead of centuries like CO₂ and is far more potent in trapping heat during that time.
Reducing methane emissions could reduce climate change quickly – a climate action lifeline we will be sorry to see thrown away.
6. The nuclear option
Trump seems to have a soft spot for one low-carbon energy source: nuclear power. Perhaps because civil nuclear maintains the skills and supply chains needed for its military applications?
7. Up is down, left is right
Democrats may regret making "trust the science" their dividing line against Trump.
Eric Nast, an environmental governance expert at the University of Guelph, tracked how the first Trump administration altered language on US government websites.
He expects Trump to disguise his regulation bonfire as "strengthening transparency" (blocking air pollution standards that rely on private health data) and championing "citizen science" (dismissing academics from advisory boards for private citizens rich in time and money, who might benefit from scrapping rules and limiting scrutiny).
8. Fighting fire in an oligarch's world
Tesla's Elon Musk, Amazon's Jeff Bezos and Meta's Mark Zuckerberg attended Trump's second inauguration. Their presence – plus a pointed farewell speech by Biden – has provoked murmurs of "oligarchy": rule by people whose immense wealth and influence has utterly captured ostensibly democratic societies.
At the still-raging LA fires, an oligarch-friendly response to climate change has presented itself: firefighters-for-hire.
"As public firefighters struggle to cope, affluent residents and businesses have turned to private firefighting services to protect their properties," says Doug Specht, a University of Westminster geographer.
9. Arctic relations
Finally, what explains Trump's interest in the Arctic? Oil, gas and critical minerals newly liberated by thawing ice in a region warming nearly four times faster than the global average says engineer Tricia Stadnyk at the University of Calgary.
"The second Trump administration is aware of both the new opportunities and risks as global temperatures shatter new records and thresholds, and an ice-free Arctic becomes a possibility," she says.
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At Trump's inauguration Silicon Valley’s elite (Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos, Sundar Pichai, Tim Cook, Sam Altman...) were given priority seating over members of Trump's cabinet.
Their companies are part of a cartel run by US military/intelligence, their main shareholders are US investment funds Black Rock, State Street, Vanguard and Fidelity. Together they shape American security and economic policy. With Trump in the White House they hope to rewire the US economy around the technologies of the future – artificial intelligence, robotics, space, weaponry and bioscience - and bolster its waning hegemony.
Protectionism and re-industrialization are now touted as a solution to slowed investment, innovation, and growth. Industrial output and productivity have declined, and the US has lost its leadership position in vital technologies - including in aerospace, energy, and semiconductors (good luck with getting Americans to work in sterile conditions).
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