So if there was 1 excess death in 2020 and 15 in 2022 out of a population of 20 million thats a 1,500% increase in excess deaths.
This is not a proper way of calculating it. You need to calculate the % of Excess Deaths over Expected Deaths (say over a 2016-2019 baseline) This is still high but not wildly exciting, but its the correct way
No need to complicate it, population and age demographics don't change that fast . When you are looking at 10-20% absolute increase in deaths above expected you know something bad is going on. No need to be a rocket scientist
That said, only 1% of the population are expected to die in a normal year, and a 10% -20% increase means 0.1-0.2% (1/500 to 1/1000 people) , so that context is being lost by those who seek to sensationalize to build up paid subscribers
All very well argued Donny, and that is why I look at the number of standard deviations above the average before claiming that the "excess" deaths are statistically significant. Once the number of deaths is more than 2 standard deviations above the 5 year average, you can be pretty sure that something is going on, and that my friend is exactly what is happening.
Absolutely correct, and you are right to pull people up on such exaggerated claims. It is essential that we do not emulate the covid scaremongers of yore because then we become no better than them.
Thank you David, I agree 100% - we are being just as manipulative as the narrative when we sensationalise to promote our substacks and attack each other for disagreeing, I've been called a holocaust denier, a bot, a troll and a Kool Aid drinker
While understanding that the five year average 2015-2019 is unprecedentedly low and deaths can't continue to be low indefinitely, and very importantly that the recent deaths are not age adjusted and that deaths increase whatever the health policies in an ageing population https://georgiedonny.substack.com/p/excess-mortality-what-does-it-show
and when the 'excess' deaths dip well below, by 2 standard deviations, as they would have in comparing the 5 year average in 2004-2008 to 2009, what is said to be going on then?
That will occur when the previous year suffered a severe flu epidemic and should have been the case in 2021. As regards the year to year increase in deaths that you get from an ageing population, the way to analyze that is to use the deaths per million for each 10 year age group and see what the trends for that metric are. That is how I managed to prove that there never was an epidemic in Japan in 2020, even for the older age groups.
Excess Mortality -as a quantity utilized by the CDC, is based upon a formula/calculation with guesstimates for input. All-Cause Mortality figures are another thing entirely- not sure what you're positing here as the the terminology needs clarification...
Remember relative and absolute vaccine efficacy, which I was banging on about since January 2021 (when I was still allowed) on Twitter?
Relative gives big numbers such as 95%, absolute little ones like 0.85%. I'm not sure that everyone has got the hang of it even now.
Say 1% of the jabbed have symptoms compared to 2% of the placebo. 1 as a percentage of 2 is 50%, so 50% relative efficacy, but the actual difference between the treatment and placebo is only 1%, so 1% absolute efficacy.
Relative gives big numbers like 5126% increase in 'excess' death in Oz. Absolute gives smaller numbers like 0.08% absolute increase in the number of deaths.
The Oz 5162% increase represents a difference of 22,000 deaths between 2022 and a deliberately chosen low death year. Excess death is meant to be compared to the previous 5 year average, a kind of placebo, but many are not even bothering to do that and just comparing to the lowest year; either 2019 or 20. These lowest years actually represent the lowest for decades as the death rate in Oz (for non-indigenous people) is falling. The population of Oz is increasing and is now 25,978, 935 so the absolute increase in deaths, compared to the lowest year in decades, is therefore just 0.08%.
Excess mortality is not guessed at - it's the present years current all cause deaths as a percentage of the average of the previous 5 years (all cause ) deaths.
You seem confused, there is no need for clarification of terminology.
When comparing 2022 in E and W there were less all cause deaths than in 2021, 2020 and in every year before 2008. The death rate has been falling (when age and population standardised for years)
yes, I am getting some resistance- I'm now an excess mortality denier and as well as a covid and virus denier.
I hoped that my post had shown that there ISN"T any excess mortality to ignore. Unless you compare with 2019 or 2020 whichever is the lowest in that particular country.
The death rate in Oz, Uk and Japan has been falling to all time lows.
There has been a small increase in excess mortality recently but the 5000% in Oz in sensationalised posts represents relative excess (just like vaccine efficacy sounds better to say relative to placebo efficacy of 95% rather than absolute efficacy of 0.85%)
The absolute increases of deaths relative to the population are in the order of 0.09 to 0.1%.
I find it interesting that I am accused of being nefarious and ignoring excess mortality.
all I did was look at the number of people who had actually died in E and W. 530,000 in 2019, 600,000 in 2020, 580,000 in 2021 and 570, 000 in 2022.
There is more excess deaths in 2022 than there was in 2008 and for every year before that.
Excess death is now main stream propaganda , it's not being ignored, they are saying it's because of NHS shortages etc, ie for political purposes.
there is nothing to ignore or deny. There is no virus and there is no signal of excess death in 2022 compared to every year before the very low death years of 2008-2019
This is why excess deaths is so confusing, there is NO standard of how many excess deaths there are meant to be in a year. The 2k is only relative to what happened in 2019, and 2019 to that in 2018 etc etc. it doesn't mean more people are dying, just relative to what's gone before. also to bear in mind 82k deaths in the context of a population of opps, 125.7 million. I looked at Japan here https://georgiedonny.substack.com/p/excess-mortality-what-does-it-show the Japanese are incredibly long lived and their life expectancy dropped only slightly in 2022 to 81 for men and to 87 for women.
Ok thanks for the tips. I am NO EXPERT in this side of the story but I dug around a little to report then you can help us understand. The data from the site I sent you https://exdeaths-japan.org/en/ is based on this paper, https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/27/3/20-3925_article. It’s all cause, and the site and that paper is over-focused on COVID-19 (see how many dozens of times the word “Covid-19” was used). They don’t even mention the word “vaccine” even once on the 2-3 page “About the dashboard” page above, or 6-7 page paper. The paper says, “In our study, we considered data up to 5 years ago”, so it seems at least going back before the plandemic.
This is an interesting statement in the discussion, “the number of deaths caused by COVID-19 in Japan, which was ≈0.7 deaths/100,000 population as of May 31 (and 1.3 deaths/100,000 population as of October 31), is 10 to 100 times lower than that for many countries in Europe and for the United States, indicating the relative low overall mortality burden from COVID-19 in Japan [why don’t they put the possibility of less testing?]. This low overall mortality burden probably reflects the benefits of Japan’s rapid and comprehensive response to the COVID-19 pandemic, which began with voluntary restrictions of public events in mid-February 2020" [there was no mandated lockdown in Japan and many people continued to go outside and out to eat, and still rode crowded trains heavily, and of course mask wearing wouldn’t help with anything].
The avg person will read this info and think all the deaths are due to the “direct and indirect effects of Covid-19” as mentioned many times.
Now from our Japan medical correspondent, “The number of "Covid" deaths was few- 66% of the flu in 2020 (2500 vs 1500), and the avg no of in-patients per day in the country went from 1.25mil in 2019 to 1.16 mil (a decrease in 90,000 avg per day) from March to Dec of 2020 in spite of the news threatening “breakdown of the medical system daily” (seems similar to other countries in 2020). Note, there is VERY LITTLE 5G in Japan. The news was intense daily reporting on many cases and up to 7 waves now. Since the vaccine roll-out in mid 2021, the number of sick persons with “long-covid”, heavy menses, some collapsing (but not death), post-shot brain fog and flu-like illness, has skyrocketed".
yes, impossible to do anything with 'covid' deaths and they are using 'excess' deaths all the time, not actual numbers of people who died each year which is further confusing everything.
Thanks, the paper was from early 2021 and only about 2020. I wonder what they would say now. Well, we wont need to worry about what is XS if we see lots of people we know falling off the planet too early. I'll stay in the control group. But I do think the XS death site people are using Covid as cover for vax deaths XS or not.
It would save everyone hours on twitter and on here if we were just given a list of how many people actually died each year and the population that that represents, we could age standardised them if we wanted to be really accurate.
I was getting so confused with excess death- a bit like working out what on earth 95% efficacy of a vaccine meant- it means relative to the placebo- the actual or absolute efficicy is about 0.85% (although of course it isn't it has none and is toxic) so I decided to just look into how many people had actually died, not try to keep making the numbers into a percentage relative to a 5 year average.
2019 in E and W
There were 530,841 deaths out of 59,500,000 (0.892%)
2020
There were 608 002 deaths out of 59,719,724 (mid 2020) people (1.02%).
An increase of 0.128% (unadjusted for age) from 2019
2021
There were 586,334 deaths out of 59,641,800 people (0.98%)
A drop of 0.04% (unadjusted for age) from 2020 to 2021
2022
There were 576,896 deaths (recorded up to week ending December 30th) out of 59,740,138 people (estimated end of year) (0.96%).
A drop of 0.02% (unadjusted for age) from 2021 to 2022.
Thanks, I appreciate you putting this into perspective. 🙏💕
Hiya Nova,
thank you so much, that is exactly what I was trying to achieve, perspective, not denial that vaccines are killing people 😺
So if there was 1 excess death in 2020 and 15 in 2022 out of a population of 20 million thats a 1,500% increase in excess deaths.
This is not a proper way of calculating it. You need to calculate the % of Excess Deaths over Expected Deaths (say over a 2016-2019 baseline) This is still high but not wildly exciting, but its the correct way
Indeed, but I'm done with excess death altogether. It's confusing and is being used by everybody to sensationalise.
We need to look at how many people actually died each year and then population and age standardise them before we can compare them to each other.
No need to complicate it, population and age demographics don't change that fast . When you are looking at 10-20% absolute increase in deaths above expected you know something bad is going on. No need to be a rocket scientist
That said, only 1% of the population are expected to die in a normal year, and a 10% -20% increase means 0.1-0.2% (1/500 to 1/1000 people) , so that context is being lost by those who seek to sensationalize to build up paid subscribers
thank you for your comments PL.
I do get too complicated. the most effective communication is short and to the point.
agreed, though age profile very quickly becomes significant in rapidly ageing pops like Japan and china.
All very well argued Donny, and that is why I look at the number of standard deviations above the average before claiming that the "excess" deaths are statistically significant. Once the number of deaths is more than 2 standard deviations above the 5 year average, you can be pretty sure that something is going on, and that my friend is exactly what is happening.
Yes, my friend there is definitely something going on, but it's not a genocide yet which is what I wanted to show.
Absolutely correct, and you are right to pull people up on such exaggerated claims. It is essential that we do not emulate the covid scaremongers of yore because then we become no better than them.
Thank you David, I agree 100% - we are being just as manipulative as the narrative when we sensationalise to promote our substacks and attack each other for disagreeing, I've been called a holocaust denier, a bot, a troll and a Kool Aid drinker
🙏🏽
and the standard deviation in number of deaths would be misleading especially if the population size is large
While understanding that the five year average 2015-2019 is unprecedentedly low and deaths can't continue to be low indefinitely, and very importantly that the recent deaths are not age adjusted and that deaths increase whatever the health policies in an ageing population https://georgiedonny.substack.com/p/excess-mortality-what-does-it-show
and when the 'excess' deaths dip well below, by 2 standard deviations, as they would have in comparing the 5 year average in 2004-2008 to 2009, what is said to be going on then?
That will occur when the previous year suffered a severe flu epidemic and should have been the case in 2021. As regards the year to year increase in deaths that you get from an ageing population, the way to analyze that is to use the deaths per million for each 10 year age group and see what the trends for that metric are. That is how I managed to prove that there never was an epidemic in Japan in 2020, even for the older age groups.
Excess Mortality -as a quantity utilized by the CDC, is based upon a formula/calculation with guesstimates for input. All-Cause Mortality figures are another thing entirely- not sure what you're positing here as the the terminology needs clarification...
thx
Thanks for reading.
another way of looking at it is this;
Remember relative and absolute vaccine efficacy, which I was banging on about since January 2021 (when I was still allowed) on Twitter?
Relative gives big numbers such as 95%, absolute little ones like 0.85%. I'm not sure that everyone has got the hang of it even now.
Say 1% of the jabbed have symptoms compared to 2% of the placebo. 1 as a percentage of 2 is 50%, so 50% relative efficacy, but the actual difference between the treatment and placebo is only 1%, so 1% absolute efficacy.
Relative gives big numbers like 5126% increase in 'excess' death in Oz. Absolute gives smaller numbers like 0.08% absolute increase in the number of deaths.
The Oz 5162% increase represents a difference of 22,000 deaths between 2022 and a deliberately chosen low death year. Excess death is meant to be compared to the previous 5 year average, a kind of placebo, but many are not even bothering to do that and just comparing to the lowest year; either 2019 or 20. These lowest years actually represent the lowest for decades as the death rate in Oz (for non-indigenous people) is falling. The population of Oz is increasing and is now 25,978, 935 so the absolute increase in deaths, compared to the lowest year in decades, is therefore just 0.08%.
Jo
Excess mortality is not guessed at - it's the present years current all cause deaths as a percentage of the average of the previous 5 years (all cause ) deaths.
You seem confused, there is no need for clarification of terminology.
When comparing 2022 in E and W there were less all cause deaths than in 2021, 2020 and in every year before 2008. The death rate has been falling (when age and population standardised for years)
Perhaps this will help clarify https://georgiedonny.substack.com/p/excess-mortality-what-does-it-show
Jo
🐒
Something nefarious IS going on because ignoring excess mortality IS nefarious by definition.
yes, I am getting some resistance- I'm now an excess mortality denier and as well as a covid and virus denier.
I hoped that my post had shown that there ISN"T any excess mortality to ignore. Unless you compare with 2019 or 2020 whichever is the lowest in that particular country.
The death rate in Oz, Uk and Japan has been falling to all time lows.
There has been a small increase in excess mortality recently but the 5000% in Oz in sensationalised posts represents relative excess (just like vaccine efficacy sounds better to say relative to placebo efficacy of 95% rather than absolute efficacy of 0.85%)
The absolute increases of deaths relative to the population are in the order of 0.09 to 0.1%.
I find it interesting that I am accused of being nefarious and ignoring excess mortality.
all I did was look at the number of people who had actually died in E and W. 530,000 in 2019, 600,000 in 2020, 580,000 in 2021 and 570, 000 in 2022.
There is more excess deaths in 2022 than there was in 2008 and for every year before that.
Excess death is now main stream propaganda , it's not being ignored, they are saying it's because of NHS shortages etc, ie for political purposes.
there is nothing to ignore or deny. There is no virus and there is no signal of excess death in 2022 compared to every year before the very low death years of 2008-2019
🐒
Good topic, I read this the other day
https://expose-news.com/2022/12/01/secret-gov-reports-2-mllion-died-suddenly/
Japan said to have 82k XS deaths in 2022, 2k in 2020! This is a very interesting way to see the deaths, (the site's data ends at Sept 22)
https://exdeaths-japan.org/en/graph/numberof
This is why excess deaths is so confusing, there is NO standard of how many excess deaths there are meant to be in a year. The 2k is only relative to what happened in 2019, and 2019 to that in 2018 etc etc. it doesn't mean more people are dying, just relative to what's gone before. also to bear in mind 82k deaths in the context of a population of opps, 125.7 million. I looked at Japan here https://georgiedonny.substack.com/p/excess-mortality-what-does-it-show the Japanese are incredibly long lived and their life expectancy dropped only slightly in 2022 to 81 for men and to 87 for women.
Ok thanks for the tips. I am NO EXPERT in this side of the story but I dug around a little to report then you can help us understand. The data from the site I sent you https://exdeaths-japan.org/en/ is based on this paper, https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/27/3/20-3925_article. It’s all cause, and the site and that paper is over-focused on COVID-19 (see how many dozens of times the word “Covid-19” was used). They don’t even mention the word “vaccine” even once on the 2-3 page “About the dashboard” page above, or 6-7 page paper. The paper says, “In our study, we considered data up to 5 years ago”, so it seems at least going back before the plandemic.
This is an interesting statement in the discussion, “the number of deaths caused by COVID-19 in Japan, which was ≈0.7 deaths/100,000 population as of May 31 (and 1.3 deaths/100,000 population as of October 31), is 10 to 100 times lower than that for many countries in Europe and for the United States, indicating the relative low overall mortality burden from COVID-19 in Japan [why don’t they put the possibility of less testing?]. This low overall mortality burden probably reflects the benefits of Japan’s rapid and comprehensive response to the COVID-19 pandemic, which began with voluntary restrictions of public events in mid-February 2020" [there was no mandated lockdown in Japan and many people continued to go outside and out to eat, and still rode crowded trains heavily, and of course mask wearing wouldn’t help with anything].
The avg person will read this info and think all the deaths are due to the “direct and indirect effects of Covid-19” as mentioned many times.
Now from our Japan medical correspondent, “The number of "Covid" deaths was few- 66% of the flu in 2020 (2500 vs 1500), and the avg no of in-patients per day in the country went from 1.25mil in 2019 to 1.16 mil (a decrease in 90,000 avg per day) from March to Dec of 2020 in spite of the news threatening “breakdown of the medical system daily” (seems similar to other countries in 2020). Note, there is VERY LITTLE 5G in Japan. The news was intense daily reporting on many cases and up to 7 waves now. Since the vaccine roll-out in mid 2021, the number of sick persons with “long-covid”, heavy menses, some collapsing (but not death), post-shot brain fog and flu-like illness, has skyrocketed".
Thank you Proton,
yes, impossible to do anything with 'covid' deaths and they are using 'excess' deaths all the time, not actual numbers of people who died each year which is further confusing everything.
🙏🏽
Thanks, the paper was from early 2021 and only about 2020. I wonder what they would say now. Well, we wont need to worry about what is XS if we see lots of people we know falling off the planet too early. I'll stay in the control group. But I do think the XS death site people are using Covid as cover for vax deaths XS or not.
yes vax deaths will be hidden as covid deaths
This is very difficult to find, perhaps you can help?
What is the actual number of people who died in Japan, say in 2018,19,20,21 and 22?
🐒
Jo
It would save everyone hours on twitter and on here if we were just given a list of how many people actually died each year and the population that that represents, we could age standardised them if we wanted to be really accurate.
I was getting so confused with excess death- a bit like working out what on earth 95% efficacy of a vaccine meant- it means relative to the placebo- the actual or absolute efficicy is about 0.85% (although of course it isn't it has none and is toxic) so I decided to just look into how many people had actually died, not try to keep making the numbers into a percentage relative to a 5 year average.
2019 in E and W
There were 530,841 deaths out of 59,500,000 (0.892%)
2020
There were 608 002 deaths out of 59,719,724 (mid 2020) people (1.02%).
An increase of 0.128% (unadjusted for age) from 2019
2021
There were 586,334 deaths out of 59,641,800 people (0.98%)
A drop of 0.04% (unadjusted for age) from 2020 to 2021
2022
There were 576,896 deaths (recorded up to week ending December 30th) out of 59,740,138 people (estimated end of year) (0.96%).
A drop of 0.02% (unadjusted for age) from 2021 to 2022.